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· Posted on
August 2, 2024

Microsoft's shares have Excel-erated down after its AI hype fell short of its spreadsheet goals

Microsoft’s shares drop 7% or $219 billion USD in value.

What's the key learning?

  • Major tech companies chasing AI glory are spending a ton of cash on software infrastructure and software development right now.
  • For the true believers, all these spending is necessary to fund the the AI long game, but only serious numbers on revenue would turn the investors' skepticism around.
  • So Microsoft’s drop in share price is just a reminder that if they don’t start making serious moula soon, the heat will be on.

👉 Background: Microsoft is famous for its Microsoft Office Suite and more recently for making the big switch into cloud and AI, which they have done so VERY successfully. In fact, its shares have jumped over 50% over the past two years.

👉 What happened: Microsoft has just released its quarterly results, which spooked investors a fair bit. After reporting revenue up 15% and earnings per share well ahead of forecast, it reported only a 29% growth in its Azure cloud computing unit - when it was projected to grow 31%.

👉 What else: Next minute: Microsoft’s shares drop 7% or $219 billion USD in value. But apart from missing its cloud growth target, Microsoft investors are concerned that it's spending a pretty penny on its AI capabilities.

What's the key learning?

💡When exorbitant spending doesn’t turn into exorbitant revenue, it can create doubts in a company’s biggest believers.

💡 Microsoft invested $US19 billion in the June quarter into capital expenditure related to AI and spent over $US55 billion in FY24.

💡But for many investors, AI spending just isn’t converting into AI earnings fast enough. In fact, Microsoft's AI revenue isn't material enough to be disclosed in their financial results! So the AI spending of Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta are on watch by investors.

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